FIDT estimates that cash flow will continue to fluctuate and industry groups will have strong differentiation in this second quarter.
In a recent report, FDIT stated that from the beginning of 2024 until now, the market has recorded continuous fluctuations and cash flow is not concentrated in a certain industry group, on the contrary, it is widespread. of cash flow out of almost all industries in different periods.
The Banking stocks group has really come back and attracted large cash flows since January 2024 (with an average proportion of >20% compared to the whole market), after having hidden ups and downs throughout 2023 ( with an average proportion of 13-15%). This large cash flow is also a factor that has helped Bank stocks continuously increase well in the recent period.
In other developments, Real Estate and Financial Services stocks recorded more unusual cash inflows. Real estate still holds the 2nd position in terms of transaction proportion in the whole market, especially there have been times when this group attracted very strong cash flow with the story of passing the Land Law (amended) at an extraordinary meeting. in January of Congress. The Financial Services group maintained stability in the previous weeks and has sharply increased cash flow in the last 2 weeks, becoming the group with the largest contribution to the overall market liquidity.
The cash flow picture by industry group is the same, but the industry indexes do not record a correspondence. From the beginning of the year to the end of the first quarter of 2024, almost all industries had growth in profit margins. Going against this trend, Tourism and Entertainment is the only industry recording negative growth.
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Chemicals are the industry that recorded the best growth rate (x3 times VN-Index) from the beginning of the year to the present. The main strength for the chemical industry's incredible profit growth lies mainly in the Vinachem family and Duc Giang Chemical (DGC). Since the beginning of the year, these two entities have had a very strong upward momentum thanks to highly effective P4 business activities, pushing up the performance of the entire industry.
In addition to Chemicals, the Retail and Industrial Goods & Services sectors also had performance above 20%. Other industries such as Banking, Financial Services, and Information Technology also have good growth compared to the VN-Index. Except for Tourism and Entertainment with negative performance, in the first quarter, no industry had a performance of less than 6.5%.
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Regarding industry groups with lower performance than VN-Index, FIDT believes that the two most notable industries in April and the second quarter are Real Estate and Oil and Gas.
For the Real Estate group, in the first quarter there was a lot of supporting information such as the revised Land Law being passed and the trend of interest rates continuing to remain low. Current cash flow is focusing on the real estate group with continuously increasing liquidity for this group. FIDT recognizes that supportive policies are gradually penetrating the market and there has been a recovery in liquidity in the real estate market since the end of Q2.2023.
The analysis team recognizes that the policy has gradually spread and made the real estate market prosper more clearly since the end of 2023. In general, 2024 will be the year marking the recovery of the real estate market, however the level of differentiation of Real estate businesses in 2024 will be quite obvious, businesses with good financial situation and projects ready to be put into operation will clearly benefit during this period.
Similarly, Oil and Gas is also an industry that has not had many breakthroughs in the first 3 months of the year. Good information supporting this industry such as information about orders for upstream oil and gas businesses, information about FID Block B,... has appeared since the first quarter but still needs time to absorb as well as Official implementation under FIDT will be a strong growth driver for the Oil and Gas industry in this second quarter.
FIDT estimates that cash flow will continue to fluctuate and industry groups will have strong differentiation in this second quarter. In particular, with stock price growth being restrained in recent times, real estate and oil and gas still have room to make a breakthrough in the coming time, especially when the recovery story of these groups is bright this month. 4 and the second quarter of 2024.
In general, investors can see a market with many opportunities, however there will be differentiation between industry groups and businesses within each industry. Investors should pay attention and monitor stocks that have a growth or recovery business foundation, have their own stories, and prices do not yet reflect the full prospects to accumulate potential codes.